COVID-19 Forecast for El Paso County — Jan. 11
Plus, our resident microbiologist on the insurrection at the Capitol
Good morning, and happy Monday. On this pre-pandemic date last year, the Colorado College men’s ice hockey team defeated the Miami University RedHawks by 4-2 at the Broadmoor World Arena while cheered on by fans. (This year, the Tigers lack an audience as COVID-19 restrictions don’t allow in-person spectators at the arena.)
Today, Phoebe Lostroh returns to give her weekly COVID-19 forecast for El Paso County and to explain how the insurrectionists who stormed the U.S. Capitol last week worsened the spread of COVID-19. Lostroh is a professor of molecular biology at Colorado College on scholarly leave who is serving as the program director in Genetic Mechanisms, Molecular and Cellular Biosciences at the National Science Foundation.
➡️ICYMI: On Wednesday, three mental health professionals at Colorado College discussed the trend among students of feeling “helpless and hopeless” in the face of COVID-19. Also, the Director of the Career Center explained how the pandemic affected the job market for recent graduates.
📚Our reads of the week:
On Jan. 5, The Gazette reported a surge of wastewater contaminated with COVID-19 in northern Colorado Springs, Pueblo West, Denver, and Boulder. Wastewater testing can detect COVID-19 particles in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals days before they become contagious.
The Denver Post reported on Jan. 8 that despite Gov. Polis’ green light, some restaurants are still wary of reopening indoor dining at 25% capacity. “I am afraid this shift in public safety levels does not reflect what is happening in the hospitals, or that it is coming too soon or even sending the wrong message, no matter how difficult that is on my own business,” one restaurant owner wrote.
As of Jan. 10, the Center for Disease Control said they’ve detected 63 cases of the highly-contagious B117 variant in the U.S., which sequencers discovered in eight states. Scientists found the first case of the new variant from Europe in Colorado on Dec. 29.
💉Are you a Coloradan over age 70? Click here for more information on how you can receive a vaccine in El Paso County.
Phoebe’s Forecasts
NOTES: These forecasts represent her own opinion and not necessarily those of the National Science Foundation or Colorado College. She used the public El Paso County dashboard for all data. Lostroh prepared these forecasts on Jan. 10, 2021.
⚖️ How her predictions last week shaped up: Jan. 9 is the last day of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report week 1 in the national public health calendar. It is the 44th week since health officials detected the first coronavirus case in El Paso County. Since March 13, 611 El Paso County residents have died of COVID-19. Last week, Lostroh predicted between 1,324 and 1,702 new cases in El Paso County for the week ending Jan. 7. There were actually 1,751 cases.
Cumulative reported cases in El Paso County with predictions
🗝️ Key points: Reported cases are in black circles while the other symbols provide estimates based on curve-fitting. The high, middle, and low estimates are based on exponential curve-fitting to the most recent seven, 14, and 21 days, respectively, and triangles mark where recent events fall on the curve. Lostroh predicts El Paso County will see 2,041-2,164 new cases of COVID-19 for the week ending Jan. 14.
“There is no longer a trend of decreasing new cases, so I am no longer projecting a separate ‘best-case scenario,’” Lostroh said. “The fact that the curve is sharpest using the most recent seven days of reliable data indicates that the local epidemic is accelerating.”
Rolling 14-day incidence per 100,000 people with predictions
🗝️ Key points: The orange and red lines at the top of the graph show the date ranges when El Paso County had orange or red-level safety precautions in effect. The red, orange, and yellow-dotted lines at the bottom of the graph show the thresholds for those incidence levels (350, 175, and 75, respectively). The improving trend has recently reversed so the incidence is now increasing, Lostroh said.
The state has uncoupled incidence levels from their designated safety precautions. Despite crossing the Level Red threshold on Nov. 2, El Paso County didn’t implement red-level safety precautions until Nov. 27. During this timeframe, the incidence grew from 355 to 1,226 cases per 100,000 people. As of Jan. 10, El Paso County’s incidence is still above the red-level threshold at 493 cases, but Gov. Polis said all counties at Level Red could move to Level Orange restrictions starting Jan. 4.
“What’s happening now is that this dial, which is supposed to inform people about the level of active disease in the community, is being subverted and used instead to communicate exclusively with business owners about the restrictions that they must have in place in order to be open,” Lostroh said. “But not everyone in the public understands that — and I think that the public might look at the dial, see that it’s orange, and think that it is safer than it is.”
Percent positivity for COVID-19 in El Paso County
🗝️ Key points: Average 14-day rolling percent positivity is plotted in dark blue while the daily positivity values are in light blue. The orange and red lines at the top of the graph show the date ranges El Paso County had orange or red-level safety precautions in effect. As of Jan. 10, the 14-day rolling average percent positivity for the virus is 8.88% and increasing.
El Paso County Public Health announced they are opening more COVID-19 testing sites starting today (Jan. 11). More testing is beneficial for controlling the pandemic, but will also make it difficult to compare data from before and after the increased testing, said Lostroh.
Q-and-A with Lostroh: Our resident microbiologist on Biden’s vaccine distribution plan
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
CC COVID-19 Reporting Project: On Friday, Center for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield joined other experts in warning the occupation of the U.S. Capitol by a mob of extremists on Jan. 6 was a “surge event” for COVID-19. What impacts will Wednesday’s events have on viral spread and when might we start to see their effect on the population?
Lostroh: Yeah, I agree with Dr. Redfield. I definitely think there were people at that event who were infected and didn’t know it. Clearly, almost no one was wearing face masks or taking any precautions. Some of them were outside, but it appeared that there was no attempt at all for physical distancing, which is dangerous. I also saw a video of a Congresswoman wearing a mask and trying to pass out masks to her Republican colleagues when they were hidden away safely during the insurrection, and people were laughing and refusing to wear the masks. So it’s also possible that we’re going to see some cases among members of Congress, frankly. They might be partially immune from receiving one dose of the vaccine, depending on which kind they got, how long exactly it’s been, and other factors. They could have a 50 to 60% reduced chance of contracting the virus, so that will be helpful. I think it’ll be another week before we start to see cases connected to the mob. Also, I didn't see any mass arrests. From a disease point of view, that could be good, because a mass arrest of all those rioters and combining them in an indoor space with less ventilation could have enhanced spread. I think that the insurrectionists and rioters should have been mass arrested; they were not legally protesting in my opinion. But from a disease point of view, perhaps it was a good idea not to confine them to a small space, such as a transportation bus or holding cell for some number of hours.
CCRP: Even though federal officials said their goal was to have 20 million Americans vaccinated by the end of 2020, as of Jan. 10, data gathered by Bloomberg News found that the United States had administered only 8.02 million doses. What is your understanding as to why the vaccine rollout has not gone as quickly as planned?
Lostroh: First of all, there’s a government-private partnership with Walgreens and CVS, who are supposed to be in charge of inoculating everyone living in a long-term care facility. But in many states, Walgreens and CVS have not implemented that plan fast enough. So, how do you hold a for-profit company responsible for not holding up their end of the bargain? That’s number one. There’s a state that has done really well distributing vaccines, a state that I think a lot of people did not expect, and that’s West Virginia. They don’t have very many Walgreens or CVS stores and so they refused — unlike the 49 other states — to collaborate with the Walgreens and CVS plan, and they instead distributed the vaccine throughout their state to independently-owned small pharmacies. Those pharmacies have given out a much larger percentage of the vaccine to the people living in long term care facilities. So I hold Walgreens and CVS very responsible for the slow pace of the rollout. In terms of what needs to change, there’s no coordination between states and the federal government. Everything varies state-by-state. Since there’s no coordination, people who would like to have the support of higher-up people providing guidelines are having to make the decisions on the fly. So, the vaccines are shipped all in this frozen state, and then they have to be diluted before they get injected into somebody’s arm. Once they’re diluted they become less stable, and any vaccine remaining in vials must be discarded after six hours. I’ve read stories about how because Coloradans age 70 and older and healthcare workers are now eligible for vaccination in Phase 1b, people are stuck making these decisions: ‘should I throw this diluted vial out, or should I use it on the people who are here in front of me, even though they aren’t the highest priority in whatever phase my state happens to be in the middle of?’
CCRP: In a reversal of the Trump administration’s plan to hold a vaccine reserve, Biden announced on Friday he would release nearly all available doses of the COVID-19 vaccine instead of holding onto roughly half of them for the second round of shots. To what extent do you think this plan will help with vaccine rollout, and what else should a Biden administration consider in their distribution strategy?
Lostroh: The Biden plan is a calculated risk, and the calculation is that we are more likely to have more vaccines manufactured in time for the second doses to be administered. That risk is worth it, given the partial immunity that a person might get by getting just one shot. Also, there’s a calculated risk in terms of what if the second dose isn’t administered exactly in line with the timeframe the company tested in the trials? How much flexibility is there when that second dose is administered in order to get immunity up to 90% or greater? We truly don't know the answer, but since the Trump administration has not done anything to improve contact tracing, nothing to improve the amount of free testing available, we are now at a situation where we have 4,000 people dying every day from COVID-19 in the United States. There’s also now a more contagious variant of the virus that could potentially continue to evolve to be resistant to the vaccine. So we need to get as many doses into arms now as fast as possible. I think that it’s probably a good calculated risk, but I haven’t read the pros and cons written by MDs and epidemiologists. I’m also hoping that when the Biden administration takes over there will be a clearer vaccine distribution plan that involves not only the actual implementation plans, but also a reporting structure. We need to know what happens to the doses, you know, if a dose is delivered and it hasn’t been used in a week, someone should be following up to say, ‘okay what’s going on? Why hasn’t that dose been used in a week, and what do we need to provide for you so that you can use it?’ I’m hoping that Biden will help accelerate things. I don’t understand why, as a nation, we have not been training thousands more people to be able to administer vaccines, so that we could distribute them more quickly. It’s like contact-tracing. We basically gave up on that, and now we’re just waiting for the vaccine to come save us all.
About the CC COVID-19 Reporting Project
The CC COVID-19 Reporting Project is created by Colorado College student journalists Isabel Hicks, Esteban Candelaria, Lorea Zabaleta, and Cameron Howell in partnership with The Catalyst, Colorado College’s student newspaper. Work by Phoebe Lostroh, Associate Professor of Molecular Biology at CC and National Science Foundation Program Director in Genetic Mechanisms, Molecular and Cellular Biosciences, will appear from time to time, as will infographics by Colorado College students Rana Abdu, Aleesa Chua, Sara Dixon, Jia Mei, and Lindsey Smith.
The project seeks to provide frequent updates about CC and other higher education institutions during the pandemic by providing original reporting, analysis, interviews with campus leaders, and context about what state and national headlines mean for the CC community.
📬 Enter your email address to subscribe and get the newsletter in your inbox each time it comes out. You can reach us with questions, feedback, or news tips by emailing ccreportingproject@gmail.com.