COVID-19 Forecast for El Paso County — May 3
Plus, a professor of public policy on vaccine hesitancy among young adults
Good morning, and happy Monday. On this pandemic date last year, the Seay Library of Music and Art was looking for student workers to work in their music library. (Currently, the library is closed for in-person browsing, although some services are available online.)
Today, Phoebe Lostroh returns to give her weekly COVID-19 forecast for El Paso County. Lostroh is a professor of molecular biology at Colorado College on scholarly leave who is serving as the program director in Genetic Mechanisms, Molecular and Cellular Biosciences at the National Science Foundation.
Our Q-and-A section today brings back Zoe McLaren, associate professor for the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. During the pandemic, McLaren has focused her work on how human behavior affects the pandemic, as well as how public policy can influence that behavior.
➡️ICYMI: On Wednesday, we broke down CC’s plan to require vaccinations for all students, staff, and faculty members on campus. Also, we explained what the move out process will look like this year.
🚨WE’RE HIRING: We’re looking to add some new members to The CC COVID-19 Reporting Project for the summer! CC students, if you’re interested in joining us, email us at ccreportingproject@gmail.com for more information. Applications are due May 5 at 5 p.m. MT.
📃TAKE THIS SURVEY: We have put together a survey for CC students to gather data on what they think about their own and others’ behaviors throughout this pandemic school year.
Phoebe’s Forecasts
NOTES: These forecasts represent her own opinion and not necessarily those of the National Science Foundation or Colorado College. She used the public El Paso County dashboard for all data. Lostroh prepared these forecasts on May 1.
⚖️ How her predictions last week shaped up: May 1 is the last day of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report week 17 in the national public health calendar. It is the 60th week since the first case was detected in El Paso County. Since March 13, 787 El Paso County residents have died of COVID-19. Last week, Lostroh predicted between 1,744 and 1,923 new cases in El Paso County for the week ending April 29. There were actually 1,848 cases.
Cumulative reported cases in El Paso County with predictions
🗝️ Key points: Reported cases are in black circles while the red, grey, and light blue symbols provide estimates based on curve-fitting for the most recent 21, 14, and seven days. For the week ending May 6, Lostroh predicts 1,854-1,989 new cases in El Paso County.
“Reported new cases continue to rise at an increasing rate,” Lostroh said. “It is likely that more transmissible variants comprise a significant proportion of the viruses causing new cases locally.”
Rolling seven-day cumulative incidence in El Paso County with predictions
🗝️ Key points: The actual calculated incidence is in black Xs, while the red, gray, and light blue symbols provide estimates based on curve-fitting for the most recent 21, 14, and seven days. The red, orange, yellow, and blue lines at the top of the graph show when El Paso County had red, orange, and yellow safety precautions in effect, and when the 5 Star State Certification Program went into effect. The gray, orange, and red-dotted lines show the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s risk thresholds for community transmission. As of May 2, the incidence per 100,000 people in El Paso County over the last seven days was 249.
“Incidence started rising one month after the orange-level safety precautions ended and continues to rise,” Lostroh said. “The current trajectory is not as steep as the beginning of the third wave but virus behavior is more unpredictable because of the variants and some immunity, especially in the older adult population.”
Seven-day rolling percent positivity compared with daily percent positivity in El Paso County
🗝️ Key points: The seven-day rolling percent positivity for nasopharyngeal tests for viral nucleic acids is plotted in dark blue diamonds, while the daily percent positivity is plotted in open light blue diamonds. The gray, orange, and red-dotted lines show the CDC’s risk thresholds for community transmission. As of May 2, the percent positivity in El Paso County over the last seven days was 8.9%.
“The percent positivity is increasing, indicating that the county is under-counting total cases,” Lostroh said.
New COVID-19 hospitalizations compared with the regional census of hospitalized COVID-19 patients
🗝️ Key points: Daily hospitalizations are plotted in blue using the left-hand axis, while the census of regional hospitalized COVID-19 patients is plotted in red on the right-hand axis. As of May 2, the seven-day average daily hospital admissions in El Paso County was at around 7.8.
COVID-19 vaccinations in El Paso County
🗝️ Key points: The El Paso County vaccine dashboard tracks county vaccine distribution. The number of people who have been partially or fully vaccinated in El Paso County is indicated with purple symbols, while percentages of the population that have been vaccinated are indicated by the red, orange, and green-dotted lines. El Paso County has administered a total of 415,323 doses. Some of those doses were the first shot someone received, while others were the second shot to complete the vaccine series. As of May 2, 180,470 people have received both shots and thus have completed the immunization series.
“Demand for vaccination has fallen in El Paso County,” Lostroh said. “Although it has been widely reported that the U.S. has reached 50% vaccination among eligible adults, taking the entire population including teens and children into account, about 33% of the El Paso County population has had at least one shot.”
Today’s Q-and-A: University of Maryland, Baltimore County professor Zoe McLaren on ‘vaccine passports’
Zoe McLaren is an associate professor for the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. McLaren majored in biology and political science and graduated from Dartmouth College in 2000 before completing her doctorate in economics and public policy at the University of Michigan in 2010 and spending eight years as faculty in their School of Public Health. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. McLaren’s responses represent her own opinions and not necessarily those of her employer. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
CC COVID-19 Reporting Project: Colorado College recently became one of many colleges and universities across the country to implement a COVID-19 vaccine requirement for this coming fall. To what extent do you think this move was necessary to help return to “normal”?
McLaren: Vaccine hesitancy is highest among young people who may not see themselves at risk for COVID-19, but to return to normal we need to keep case rates down. Requiring vaccination is the most effective way to ensure safe campuses as we return to normal, as is vaccinating adults who work in schools and parents of students. We know that masking, distancing, and ventilation will help reduce transmission in schools. Furthermore, until we have vaccines for children it is going to take a lot of work to keep K-12 schools safe for everyone.
CCRP: With the controversy surrounding vaccine passports, which are physical or digital documents that show someone’s vaccination status and have become increasingly used for travel and other activities, do you think the federal government or state governments should implement public policy that make use of them? Or are these policies best left to private groups like airlines?
McLaren: It makes sense to have different rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people, because they pose different transmission risks. And it’s helpful to have a centralized system that can quickly, easily, and securely verify someone’s vaccination status. Leaving it to private companies like the airlines will just create a disjointed system and make everything a lot more complicated. A single, unified system would be best, and that means governments should help make that possible. Encouraging and incentivizing people to get vaccinated is the surest way for the country to get back to normal, as is doing other policies to slow transmission among unvaccinated people as well.
CCRP: Some public health officials in Colorado have found that the Colorado communities that have the highest case rates are often those that have the lowest vaccination rates, and vice versa. What does this say about the public policy regarding the pandemic for those Colorado communities?
McLaren: The effectiveness of vaccination is clear from the data. Many people in areas with low vaccination rates want to get vaccinated but face barriers to access or can be persuaded of the importance of getting vaccinated. The state must work to find the best combination of strategies to boost vaccination rates. It can be done, but it will take effort.
About the CC COVID-19 Reporting Project
The CC COVID-19 Reporting Project is created by Colorado College student journalists Esteban Candelaria, Lorea Zabaleta, and Cameron Howell in partnership with The Catalyst, Colorado College’s student newspaper. Work by Phoebe Lostroh, Associate Professor of Molecular Biology at CC and National Science Foundation Program Director in Genetic Mechanisms, Molecular and Cellular Biosciences, will appear from time to time.
The project seeks to provide frequent updates about CC and other higher education institutions during the pandemic by providing original reporting, analysis, interviews with campus leaders, and context about what state and national headlines mean for the CC community.
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